Bc Lions 2008 Cfl Preview
BC Lions 2008 CFL Preview
No other football team has played better the last 5 years then the BC Lions. During the last 5 years, the Lions are 66-31 SU and are the only football team with over 60 wins during that span. Wally Buono has really turned this franchise around and during the last few years, nobody had a better trio of QB’s then the Lions, with Dave Dickenson, Buck Pierce and Jarious Jackson at the controls.
However, as much as handicappers look at the players and depth chart of each team, the real centre of attention is the bookmaker’s numbers they assign each game and futures bet. One of the key factors when you handicap a B.C. Lions game, you have to remember the bookmaker’s are aware the CFL betting public are going to be favoring the Lions in most game, due to their past success the last few years. How can you not like the Lions in for the most part of their games, but you have to remember the line is what keeps most sharp players grounded! You cannot be always laying double digits when betting favorites in Football, as you need to remind yourself, these are professional athletes and the comeback ratio compared to college football is higher.
Therefore, where exactly do you find value in betting on the BC Lions? Keep in mind, it’s tough to find a weakness in a team that has won 68% of its football games the last 5 years, but no team is perfect! If you want to bet against the BC Lions, you will want to consider it during Week 1 to 4 of the CFL season when they are a road team. The Lions are 10-12 SU on the road in this situation since 1996 and one of the key factors is the travel time. It’s harder for a West Coast teams like the Lions to travel to the East and expect them to be sharp, as their body clock is still on Pacific Time when the ball kicks off early on their East coast game.
BC Lions 2007 Season Stats
Straight up Record: 14-4-1 (including playoffs)
Against the Spread Record: 9-10-0
O/U/P: 6 OVERS 13 UNDERS 0 PUSH
Home Record:
Straight up Record: 7-3 SU
ATS Record: 4-6-0
O/U/P Record: 2-8-0
Road Record:
Straight up Record: 7-1-1 SU
ATS Record: 5-4-0 ATS
O/U/P Record: 4-5-0
Last 2 Years: 22-18-0 (ATS) 29-10-1 (SU) 14-25-1 (O/U/P)
Last 3 Years: 30-28-1 (ATS) 41-17-1 (SU) 21-36-2 (O/U/P)
Last 4 Years: 39-39-1 (ATS) 55-23-1 (SU) 30-47-2 (O/U/P)
Last 5 Years: 50-47-1 (ATS) 66-31-1 (SU) 40-56-2 (O/U/P)
Vs. Division Opponents since 1996:
60-77-4 (ATS) 73-67-1 (SU) 57-79-5 (O/U/P)
Value Index
As mention above, when betting on a public team like the Lions, allot of the line value is already gone, especially when they are considered a favorite, as it will be tough to pull the trigger on them in these situations, as the oddsmakers know they can get away with some bad numbers, because the novice gambler don’t have the “eye” to spot a bad number. Here’s how dominant the Lions have been the last few season. The last time they were a home underdog was Week #7 of the 2007 season, as they were a +7.0 home dog vs. the Montreal Alouettes. What a mistake by the bookmaker, thinking they can past a fast one over the sharps. In case you’re wondering how they did, the Lions pummeled them 32-9! If there’s something that has caught my eye in the “value index”, it’s the number of times the “under” as occurred in various roles. As you can see, the UNDER numbers dominate in 5 of the 6 roles, as the OVER was 13-10-0 when the Lions were Home Underdogs. This tells me, the bookmaker’s undermined the Lions at home and considering the favorites win at a high success rate in the CFL, BC still managed to win 10 of their 23 games as a home underdog.
Here’s how the Lions did in certain betting circumstances since 1996.
Underdog: 58-44-1 (ATS) 39-63-1 (SU) 48-51-4 (O/U/P)
Favorite: 61-76-4 (ATS) 96-45 (SU) 54-84-4 (O/U/P)
Home Dog: 12-11-0 (ATS) 10-13-0 (SU) 13-10-0 (O/U/P)
Home Fave: 36-49-3 (ATS) 62-26 (SU) 37-48-3 (O/U/P)
Road Dog: 41-27-0 (ATS) 24-43-1 (SU) 31-34-3 (O/U/P)
Road Fave: 20-21-0 (ATS) 29-12 (SU) 13-28-0 (O/U/P)
B.C. Lions Head to Head Record vs. Each CFL Team
Every football team as their nemesis, but the Lions don’t seem to have one yet, as they are basically a .500 ball club vs. 4 out of the 8 teams and have owned the Hamilton Tiger Cats since 1996. However, from a CFL Betting point of view, the numbers that catch our eye is the against the spread wins they have vs. the Montreal Alouettes, as they are 19-8-0 ATS vs. the Alouettes since 1996. Another betting number that is worth considering, is the UNDER in the game vs. Hamilton and Winnipeg, as the UNDER is a combined 16-33-3.
Team by Team Breakdown:
Vs. Edmonton: 15-22-2 (ATS) 19-20 (SU) 16-22-1 (O/U/P)
Vs. Calgary : 20-18-1 (ATS) 22-16-1 (SU) 15-22-2 (O/U/P)
Vs. Saskatchewan: 15-24-0 (ATS) 20-19 (SU) 18-21-0 (O/U/P)
Vs. Montreal: 19-8-0 (ATS) 13-14 (SU) 15-12-0 (O/U/P)
Vs. Hamilton : 12-12-0 (ATS) 19-5 (SU) 8-15-1 (O/U/P)
Vs. Toronto : 13-13-0 (ATS) 13-13 (SU) 11-14-1 (O/U/P)
Vs. Winnipeg : 13-14-1 (ATS) 15-13 (SU) 8-18-2 (O/U/P)
Look ahead and Letdown Angles
One of the key angles of handicapping football games is the Look ahead and let down factor. Teams tend to overlook their current game when they have a big game on deck, or they tend to have an emotional let down after a high emotion win or game. It’s very hard in football to duplicate a great outing, so this is where most cappers find good value in betting football games.
Here’s a betting angle to consider when betting for and/or against the BC Lions.
The Lions are 7-17 SU after playing the Hamilton Tigers Cats and the O/U is 7 OVERS 16 UNDERS and 1 push.
Comment: This tells me the Lions are over valued after a Hamilton Tiger Cats game and that’s why you are seeing a favorable number against the Lions after playing Hamilton. Few reasons for this, but the main one is probably the Lions just hammered Hamilton and the betting public thinks they will duplicate the same effort in the next outing and the Lions have what is considered a let down game. In fact, these are classic spots to have let down games, especially if a team is coming off a 3 touchdown or more win.
About the Author
Phoenix Sports Ticket owner and Sports Handicapper Ron Raymond, 38, is a 4-time handicapping champion and one of the industry most recognizable leaders in the Sports Handicapping business. During the past 11 years, Ron has established over 10 sports gaming related gaming web sites which includes the development of a sports betting stats site (ATSDatabase.com), a sports betting statistical calculator (ATSCalculator.com) and a score result web site (Livescoreboard.com).
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